8. Mikhail V. Kotvanov

Substance and Long-Term Effects of Import Substitution

  • Contact details
  • Abstract
  • References

Mikhail V. Kotvanov

Associate Professor of Altai Institute of Economics – branch of St. Petersburg University of Management Technologies and Economics, Ph.D. in Economics

Lenina Ave 106e, Barnaul, Altai Region, Russian Federation, 656011

Aim. The presented study seeks to identify the substance of import substitution and determines its potential directions and effects on a nation.
Tasks. The author examines the existing approaches to the interpretation of the self-sufficiency policy at a national level, explores its economic substance, reviews import substitution practices, and determines the potential long-term effects of the implemented policy in Russia.
Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, retrospective analysis of economic indicators, comparison, synthesis, and monographic method.
Results. The author examines the existing approaches to the assessment of the import substitution policy and identifies the economic substance of the policy; according to which import substitution is a phase in the different states of open and closed economies. The author also reviews the experience of industrialization policy implementation in various countries and determines the potential long-term effects of import substitution.
Conclusion. The study proposes a classification of strategy toward import substitution policy based on the differences in the following multiplicative effects. The historical experience of Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the USSR shows a trend of 30-year abrupt acceleration of economic growth in the countries where import substitution was concurrent with industrialization.

Keywords: import substitution, industrializatio, economic growt, national income, retrospective analysis, domestic production

Citation: Kotvanov M. V. Sushchnost’ i dolgosrochnye posledstviya imoportozameshcheniya [Substance and Long-Term Effects of Import Substitution]. Ekonomika i Upravlenie, 2018, no. 9 (155), pp. 60–68.


  1. Vatolkina N. Sh., Gorbunova N. V. Importozameshcheniye: zarubezhnyy opyt, instrumenty i effekty [Import substitution: International experience, instruments]. Nauchno-tekhnicheskiye vedomosti Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. Ekonomicheskiye nauki, 2015, no. 6 (233), pp. 29–39. DOI: 10.5862/JE.233.3/
  2. Molchanova S. G. Prospects for import substitution: Foreign experience. 2015. Available at: http://xn--b1ae2adf4f.xn--p1ai/article/28309-pepspektivy-impoptozameshteniya-zapubezhnyy-opyt.html. Accessed 10.04.2018. (in Russ.).
  3. Zagashvili V. S. Foreign experience of import substitution and possible implications for Russia. Economic portal Institutiones.Com. Available at: http://institutiones.com/general/2886-zarubezhnyi-opytimportozamezcheniya.html Accessed 10.04.2018. (in Russ.).
  4. Mises L. von. Socialism: An economic and sociological analysis. Minneapolis: Liberty Classics Publ., 1981. 596 p. (Russ. ed.: Mises L. von. Sotsializm: ekonomicheskiy i sotsiologicheskiy analiz. Moscow: Catallaxy, 1993. 414 p.).
  5. Keynes J. M. The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan Publ., 1936. 383 p. (Russ. ed.: Keynes J. M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg. Moscow: Gelios ARV Publ., 2012. 352 p.).
  6. Smith A. An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations. London: Methuen & Co., Ltd. Publ., 1904. 1152 p. (Russ. ed.: Smith A. Issledovanie o prirode i prichinakh bogatstva narodov. Moscow: Eksmo Publ., 2016. 1056 p.).
  7. Parshev A. P. Pochemu Rossiya ne Amerika: kniga dlya tekh, kto ostayetsya zdes’ [Why Russia is not America: A book for those who stay here]. Moscow: Krymskiy most-9D; Forum Publ., 2001. 416 p.
  8. Markevich A., Harrison M. Great War, Civil War, and recovery: Russia’s national income, 1913 to 1928. Journal of Economic History, 2011, vol. 71, no. 3, pp. 672-703. (Russ. ed.: Markevich A., Harrison M. Pervaya mirovaya voyna, Grazhdanskaya voyna i vosstanovleniye: natsional’nyy dokhod Rossii v 1913–1928 gg. Moscow: Mysl’ Publ., 2013. 111 p.).
  9. Kudrov V. M. Krakh sovetskoy modeli ekonomiki [Collapse of the Soviet model of economy]. Moscow: Moscow Public Science Foundation, 2000. 223 p.
  10. Soviet economy: The inevitability of crisis and reform. Lecture 3. 2013. Available at: https://www.hse.ru/data/2013/11/19/1334702313/Лекция%203.pdf. Accessed 10.04.2018. (in Russ.).
  11. Kushnir I. P. Gross national income of the USSR, 1970–1990. Available at: http://be5.biz/makroekonomika/gni/su.html. Accessed 10.04.2018. (in Russ.).
  12. Malinskiy G. P. GDP table that nobody saw. Available at: http://www.proza.ru/2010/09/05/46. Accessed 10.04.2018. (in Russ.).
  13. Fortunatov V. V. Economic development of Russia in the late XIX — early XX century. Available at: https://www.ronl.ru/knigi/istoricheskie-lichnosti/786433/. Accessed 10.04.2018. (in Russ.).

Subscribe to electronic version of the article